A recent report from the U.S. Census, How Is Population Shifting in Your State?, identified slight population growth in over half of Ohio’s cities of 20,000+ in 2023. Overall, 50 of Ohio’s 87 cities (of 20,000+) saw population growth or remained steady from 2022-2023. Ohio even made national lists with the city of Athens ranking among the top 15 fastest growing cities in the country.
Let’s take a look at Athens first. Athens grew by 8.6% (1,955 residents) from 2022 to 2023 following a couple years of population decline. This high growth percentage helped to reverse these declines. However, while Athens has mostly recovered its lost population, it has still not returned to pre-pandemic population levels. The fluctuation in Athens’ population is likely due to students returning to campus after the COVID-19 pandemic. Oxford, another university town, also experienced a high rate of growth at 6.4% (1,343 residents.)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. "TOTAL POPULATION." American Community Survey, ACS 5-Year Estimates Detailed Tables, Table B01003, 2014-2022 and U.S. Census Bureau. "Population and Housing Unit Estimates." 2023
Columbus and Cincinnati are Steadily Adding Population
Two of Ohio’s largest cities, Columbus and Cincinnati, each experienced 0.5% growth adding 4,937 and 1,692 residents, respectively. Both cities exhibited growth outpacing the 0.2% growth rate of the state as a whole and the 0.49% national growth rate. Marysville, on the urban fringe of Columbus also experienced high growth of 4.7% (1,279 residents.) Cincinnati and Columbus’s gains are a continuation of gradual growth trends sustained over the last decade, as shown in the charts below.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. "TOTAL POPULATION." American Community Survey, ACS 5-Year Estimates Detailed Tables, Table B01003, 2014-2022 and U.S. Census Bureau. "Population and Housing Unit Estimates." 2023
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. "TOTAL POPULATION." American Community Survey, ACS 5-Year Estimates Detailed Tables, Table B01003, 2014-2022 and U.S. Census Bureau. "Population and Housing Unit Estimates." 2023
Several Legacy Cities Saw Growth
Four Ohio legacy cities saw population growth faster than state and national growth. Marion and Massillon grew by 0.6% each with 215 and 190 new residents respectively. Xenia and Middletown each grew at 0.5% with 133 and 262 residents.
Several Other Ohio Legacy Cities Showed Evidence of Stability
Due to margins of error, places that have experienced slight population loss and gain are better characterized as stable rather than growing or shrinking.
For example, Canton, Dayton, Parma, and Toledo all experienced slight population losses ranging from 316 residents, or 0.2% of the population in Dayton to 348 residents in Canton or 0.5% of the population. Though technically losses, these numbers are so small that they are more indicative of stability.
Cleveland’s population remained stable. Despite no significant gain or loss in population, this reflects a stabilizing population for Cleveland, which is significant given the dramatic population losses of 21st century.
Stable Populations are Positive but Don’t Suggest that Ohio is Poised for Rapid Growth
These population numbers are undoubtedly a positive development in Ohio’s growth. They indicate stability for the state, particularly in central and southwest Ohio. Yet even with stabilizing populations today, most of Ohio’s legacy cities are still dealing with a effects of population loss that persists in the form of long-standing disinvestment, outdated infrastructure, low property values, and job losses. For these places to experience true revitalization, they will continue to need policies and support that enable them to address these challenges.
Additionally, it’s important to note that even with slight population gains and stabilization Ohio cities made in the last year, long-term population projections released by ODOD earlier this year project the state of Ohio to decline in population by 675,000 people (5.7%) by 2050. For example, Athens County is projected to decline in population by 10.4% by 2050, despite the city of Athens growing by 8.6% in 2023. These projections stem from Ohio’s aging population, low birth rates, and low in-migration from other places. They provide important context to suggest that Ohio will continue to predominately have slow growing and stable places, rather than rapidly growing ones. In light of that, state policies should focus on our existing communities and helping them to be as high-quality and attractive as possible.