The US Census recently announced that Ohio gained 26,238 new residents in 2023, after losing 5,530 in 2022 and losing 33,065 in 2021.
GOPC spoke with reporters from Spectrum News 1 and the Dayton Daily News about the Census numbers and noted that this growth in population is encouraging, but better understood as a “big picture” indicator of stability. In a state of almost 11.8 million people, 26,238 additional people is 2/10th of a percent gain (i.e. 0.2%).
Projected population changes for Ohio Counties between 2020-2025.
Source: Ohio Department of Development Office of Research (PDF Copy)
The bigger story, in GOPC’s opinion, is that while Ohio’s population numbers are currently holding steady, the Ohio Department of Development is projecting the state will experience a 5.75% net loss in population by 2050.
Ohio Population Trends by 2050
Births, deaths, and migration trends aggregate into a total population number. By 2050, Ohio, as a state, is expected to experience more deaths per year than births and in-migration.
But at the county level, population dynamics will play out in a variety of ways. In the next 26 years, Ohio Department of Development expects 14 counties to experience notable population growth and 74 counties to remain stable or contract.
The Two Ohios have Policy Implications
As GOPC has previously discussed in our “Tale of Two States” report, we believe it is important for policymakers to recognize that population trends are not uniform across the state and should take steps to protect and shore up the health of our different regions.
Acknowledging through state programs and policies that there are “two Ohios” on two different population trajectories will allow us to best support all communities for the overall good of the state.
Local numbers and the statewide projection are not destiny—things can change in the next two decades. Local and state leaders can bend the population curve. But they need to tools to do so.
Context-Sensitive Policies and Programs Can Help Ohio Succeed
Concretely, those counties and regions that are not expected to experience long-term population growth should not be taking on any new long-term infrastructure costs in the form of new roads or new utilities. We should not encumber future ratepayers with the costs of maintaining and repairing additional infrastructure.
Instead, state programs and policies that make it easy and attractive to site companies on existing developed areas (like on old factory sites) would help keep infrastructure costs in check for ratepayers in the region and have additional benefits of being close to workers, transit, and childcare.
State Policies that are Sensitive to Context Will Retain and Increase Ohio’s Competitiveness
Currently, Ohio is the 7th largest producer of GDP in the country, comprising 3.2% of the nation’s GDP. But GDP production is increasing in other states, especially states that are experiencing clear net population increases.
We want to hold onto this position of economic strength because it results in prosperity for residents and attracts companies to the state. Being an economically competitive and attractive state leads to a virtuous cycle of high quality of life, talent retention and attraction, and continued GDP growth.
Ensuring every Ohio community has the tools it needs to make sustainable planning decisions and investments will ensure Ohio is still a strong GDP producer.