In his latest piece for Economic Innovation Group, Jason Segedy explores the future of legacy cities in a post-COVID world. Segedy conducted over 15 hours of interviews with practitioners working in municipal government and community development in 10 cities in the Great Lakes Region. “Legacy Cities in a Post-COVID World: View From Experts in the Field” is part one of a two-part series, documenting Jason Segedy’s research on what the future may hold for legacy cities in a post-COVID world. Below is a summary of his first piece on the future of legacy cities after the pandemic. To read the original piece, click here.

Segedy concludes that it’s still too soon to know how the economic and health ramifications of the pandemic will affect legacy cities. Most of the legacy cities in the Great Lakes region have been spared some of the most dramatic social and economic disruptions that have rocked their bigger coastal counterparts. This could help legacy cities in the mid-to-long term, as residents, businesses, and investors rethink strategies of concentrating wealth and opportunity in so few places. Yet at the same time, many legacy cities have been struggling for decades now, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that the trends of economic hardship, social unrest, and institutional dysfunction will negatively affect already fragile legacy cities in the short-term.

Although the future is still uncertain, Segedy observed a few themes which may help inform legacy cities on how best to position themselves to overcome current challenges and build on opportunities.

Theme 1: Moving Beyond the “Eds and Meds” Economy

For many legacy cities, the health and education economies were tapped to replace the manufacturing sector jobs lost in the 1970s. For some legacy cities, like Pittsburgh, the “Eds and Meds” have been transformative, but many scholars have wondered how sustainable these sectors truly were. The pandemic is testing the “Eds and Meds,” as COVID-19 has disrupted the traditional learning environment and heavily impacted normal revenue streams for hospitals. While there has been some improvement in the past few months, there is no doubt that the health and education sectors will likely undergo significant disruption in the near future. Segedy makes the case that legacy cities will no longer be able to rely on healthcare and education alone, and these cities will be better suited to build diverse and resilient economic bases to “attract more capital investment, more people, and more innovation.”

Theme 2: The Enduring Importance of Place

Although legacy cities have lost much over the past four decades in terms of people, jobs, and national prominence, all of them still have significant place-based assets to build upon. Many legacy cities present advantages for transportation and logistics, and are geographically located close to a variety of natural assets, like fertile land, freshwater, and relatively few disaster-prone areas. At the city-level, each legacy city contains a wealth of cultural institutions, a diversity of housing, and walkable downtowns and neighborhood business districts. Segedy recommends that legacy cities take advantage of and leverage these geographic and place-based assets, expanding their capacity for placemaking to improve neighborhood feel and function.

Theme 3: The Advantages and Disadvantages of Smaller-Scale

Most legacy cities are small to mid-sized places, which comes with advantages and disadvantages. The advantages: smaller places offer lower housing prices, less congestion, improved access to nature, and, for natives, closer connections to friends and family. Most of the disadvantages stem from broader economic changes across the globe that make it harder for these small and mid-sized cities to succeed. Industry consolidation has cost many legacy cities the industrial and manufacturing sectors once at the center of these places, taking many of the best-paying jobs and contributing to a perception that these once prominent-places and centers of innovation are now economic has-beens. Further consolidation of the financial sector continues to pull wealth and decision-making authority away from legacy cities. The disadvantages of smaller-scale are largely outside of the control of legacy city leadership. Despite their best efforts, a dynamic which has consolidated wealth, prestige, and power to just a few “superstar” cities will hold legacy cities back.

The second installment of “Legacy Cities in a Post-COVID World: View From Experts in the Field” will discuss the serious and substantive national policy responses necessary to support legacy city revitalization.